After reading the Wharton text about multistage
decision-making models and optimal dynamic decision analysis, I reflected on my decision-making methods and how I can improve
them.
The text suggests, for solving multistage decision problems, one should use the dynamic programming approach (Hoch & Kunreuther, 2005). However, most decision makers fail to use this mathematical equations despite how effective they are. Brodie (2007) lists some barriers to effective decision making as fear of failure, lack of a structured approach, procrastination or lack of clarity. Moreover, Wharton states, "We have limited abilities to anticipate the future, we are poor at learning from the past, and even our perceptions of the present are distorted" (Hoch & Kunreuther, 2005, p. 49). Undoubtedly, I fall in to these generalizations as a decision maker. My husband often gets upset with my unwillingness to make a decision and I recognize my reluctance, as well. Not only do I not enjoy making decisions, I tend to be nearsighted when forced to do so. Indeed, studies find that people generally can plan no further than just one step beyond the current decision (Hoch & Kunreuther, 2005). For example, my husband and I are eligible to retire from the military in 5 years but when I think about what I want to do afterwards, its difficult to think past my current job and what I need to do right now.
When making a decision on
how to solve a multistage problem, I rely on my past experiences and
my intuition in order to arrive at a solution to the problem. I normally to try
to gather as much known information as possible, then sort the information on
what I believe is important or relevant to the problem, then finalize my
expected outcome and move forward with making the decision. An example of this is my current role as a Section Superintendent. I have never been in this role or supervised this many people (84) but am using my past experiences as a section chief and my knowledge of the Airmen within this shop to dictate how I lead and my goals for the future. In the past two weeks, I have been gathering as much information I can on every member of the section (age, personal and professional goals, fitness stats, training percentages) so that I can move forward and make a decision on how to lead this team effectively.
While I haven't sat down and clearly defined the problem, assessed the implications, or explored different perspectives those steps may be helpful in making a decision on how I want (or need) to lead my section.
I can apply optimal dynamic decision analysis to predict the future impact of decisions by utilizing forward planning to anticipate all possible choices and outcomes and use past information to learn from and make future predictions. Using my flight as an example again, I draw on my previous life experience as a section chief and supervisor to steer how I lead my Airmen. My actions, decisions and behaviors will, hopefully, result in my Airmen following suit and my leadership being successful. Furthermore, I can use individual consideration for my troops and through trial and error know how to effectively lead, train and motivate my Airmen. I think
that my growth in this area is a continual process that comes with trial and
error over a lifetime.
Additionally, thinking critically about my leadership and decision making is critical. Hoch & Kunreuther, (2005) suggest managers should ask themselves the following four questions
- Am I being myopic?
- How appropriate is the starting analogy I am using to solve a problem?
- What are the penalties for making an error?
- What am I learning from the feedback I am receiving?
Essentially, its all about feedback. Informal feedback and personal reflection are just as important as external feedback. As a leader, and decision maker, I need to ensure I am not being nearsighted. Also, I should have critical awareness of analogies. In his TED talk, Gilbert (2005) warns that decision makers tend to compare with the past and with the possible which are both errors in values. I should be aware of consequences. And most importantly, I need to make sure I receive feedback, avoid knee-jerk reactions and learn from my mistakes (and successes).
Reference:
Brodie, D. (2007, Nov 5). 6 Steps to Better Decision Making. Retrieved from https://ezinearticles.com/?6-Steps-to-Better-Decision-Making&id=817450
Gilbert, D. (2005, July 1). TED Talk. Retrieved from Dan Gilbert: Why we make bad decisions: http://www.ted.com/talks/dan_gilbert_researches_happiness
Hoch, S., Kunreuther, H. & Gunther, R. (2001). Wharton on Making Decisions. John Wiley & sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey
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